Skip to main content
getSalary()

Tech's Trough-to-Peak Cycle - Career Decisions in 2026 Context

June 4, 2026Career7 min read
Tech's Trough-to-Peak Cycle - Career Decisions in 2026 Context

Tech's Trough-to-Peak Cycle: Career Decisions in 2026 Context

Late 2022. Central banks end ZIRP and raise interest rates. Meta, Amazon, Twitter, and Google roll out waves of layoffs in sequence. By early 2023, Türkiye's software companies begin picking up the first signals. By mid-2024, hiring freeze is normalized everywhere. 2025 is a quiet but deliberate recovery. In 2026, a selective but steady hiring environment is emerging.

This cycle is not coincidence. Macroeconomic shifts, global capital flows, and technology sector competition dynamics follow a predictable rhythm. And reading this rhythm-positioning your career decisions two years in advance-is essential.

The Macroeconomic Cycle: Interest Rates, Liquidity, Capital Flow

Software companies were financed like money was being printed during the ZIRP era. Startups with no advertising revenue, users only in the dozens, or profitable exit scenarios still murky raised billions. Growth-at-any-cost, market share capture, seat-at-the-table: all legitimate.

When central banks began raising rates in summer 2022, that capital flow dried instantly. Investors suddenly asked about profitability, and profitability demanded cost-cutting. The easiest cost cut: headcount.

Türkiye's software companies absorb this wave with a lag of two to six months behind global observers. Most are either non-global local firms or regional offices of global players. The global center makes the call, the regional operation executes it. First waves come from Meta, Google-the giants. Then local and mid-market firms follow suit.

You read that Meta laid off 10,000 people in early 2023. By October 2023, Türkiye's software companies had received that message. Finance firms, e-commerce platforms, developer-tool startups tightened their belts before year-end.

How Türkiye Tracks the Global Cycle

Türkiye's software sector operates in two layers:

First layer: VC-backed firms or those selling into global markets. They absorb the global cycle immediately-sometimes more severely, because USD fund depletion is multiplied by Türkiye's high inflation. In early 2023, this layer executed severe cuts.

Second layer: Companies selling into the local market, financed locally. They lag the cycle-sometimes by six months. Local private-sector investment decisions are less tightly tied to global rate environment. But they do react to waves of displaced engineers from the first layer dumping into the market: rising talent supply drops wage pressure; rising talent scarcity elevates it.

By late 2023 and early 2024, mid-market and local firms slipped into hiring freeze. Freeze simply means "no new hires." If headcount declines (churn, severance buyouts), the gap is not filled.

Entering 2025, the first layer began selective hiring. Deep learning, AI infrastructure, product-market fit confirmed-these firms started opening slots. The second layer is still waiting.

By 2026 onward (that's now), the equation is shifting on two fronts: demand for AI-capable engineers is rising, and general hiring is approaching normal-though not the 2020-2021 frenzy.

The Signals: Which Companies Move First, Which Roles Shrink First

The layoff order of software companies isn't random. Read these signals:

Companies that move first: Finance firms with no formal leadership, deep expert rosters but muddy profitability scenarios, uncertain burn clocks. Usually Series B-C. If they've invested heavily in crypto or blockchain at any point, the cycle hits harder.

Roles that shrink first: Fintech infrastructure (backend systems), data science and ML (high per-engineer cost), marketing and growth engineering (non-revenue-direct roles). Then parallel product layers: product engineer and UX designer doing similar work; one goes first.

Government-tied or government-revenue companies: Firms with government contracts, banks, insurers keep their lights on. Or local-user-base e-commerce, news, fintech. They feel the cycle less. But once they freeze, they're hardest to un-freeze-budgets are annualized.

Positioning Within the Cycle: Trough vs. Peak Strategies

In trough periods (like 2023-2024):

  • If you job-hop, move away from salary engineering. Find competitive firms, pick technology, and seek long-term learning. Salary negotiations will disappoint.
  • If you stay, move to structural infrastructure and scale rather than visible growth products. Visible products get cut in trough waves; infrastructure teams survive.
  • Don't be optimistic about severance. In 2023-2024, many firms offered severance as "early exit packages"-take it if the math works.
  • Develop new skills, reduce burnout risk. Surplus in trough, shortage in peak.

In peak periods (like 2020-2021, then 2025-2026 onward):

  • Accelerate career velocity. Enough companies exist, wage market is up, job security is high.
  • Rotate roles. Backend to product, product to leadership, or into a new domain entirely.
  • Prepare to negotiate counter-offers. Salary leverage peaks when competition is high.
  • Hold equity or options tight. Peak periods strengthen the case for equity/options as compensation-cash payoff potential peaks later.

Türkiye's Software Sector: The 2026 Frame

Mid-2026 looks like this:

  • VC-backed B2B SaaS: Selective hiring. If the ask is AI engineer, data infrastructure, senior product engineer-wage market approaches 2021 levels. If the ask is junior full-stack-supply is looser, offers are limp.
  • Fintech firms: In recovery phase. Despite no major layoff wave at 2024-2025 boundary, hiring is not yet at normal pace. Backend and data engineers still see open demand for competitive roles.
  • Turkish local-market software firms: Status quo. Not hiring, not firing. Wage pressure low, but the pie is not growing-private sector itself isn't expanding fast.
  • Foreign firms' Türkiye offices: Regional contraction seems finished. They're beginning to retain talent.

ML engineers and AI systems architects remain the role with highest 2026 demand and most uncertain wage table in the Türkiye market.

Two-Year Career Map: Where You Are Now, Where You Can Be by 2028

Career planning happens in two-year cycles, not nine-month sprints. Because the cycle is two years:

Now (2026 H1) Company Status Fitting Strategy Achievable by 2028 End
Stability-oriented, large firm Selective hiring Deepen skills, shift to leadership Staff/Principal engineer
VC-backed, mid-scale Selective hiring Specialize in AI or infrastructure Senior engineer or specialist
Freeze situation, local firm Waiting Build skills, network Ready for 2027 summer rotation
Laid off or departed Demand is rising Technical depth + visible projects High-wage role or founder path
Government/financial Stable but static Parallel skills, side project Private-sector transition ready

Reading the Cycle: Simple Indicators

Check the sector's position yourself:

  • Scan job boards. Opening count rising? Peak ahead. Flat? Freeze persists.
  • Listen to wage talk. "No budget" = freeze. "We can build an attractive package" = recovery.
  • Read news. "X lays off Y" articles (like 2023) signal trough start. "X hiring Z for new product" signals peak climb.
  • Company-specific cues: CEO all-hands, closed doors, "2026 plan shifted"-cycle indicators.

Closing: The Predictability Advantage

The software sector's trough-to-peak cycle is not entirely forecastable. But macroeconomic trends, technology flows, and company finance visibility are clear enough to predict with three to six months' lead time.

Reading this cycle lets you make these decisions three to six months earlier:

  • Job-change timing (move in peak, hold in trough)
  • Engineer depth vs. specialization (depth in trough, specialization entering peak)
  • Equity/option negotiation (accept entering peak, discount in trough)
  • Public vs. VC path (stability in trough, VC experience entering peak)

Check again in late 2026. If selective hiring normalizes and AI demand stabilizes, prep for 2027-2028 peak. If freeze talk persists, stay simple and safe.

Career cycles dance with sector cycles. Know the rhythm, own the step.

Different strategies for different cycle stages:

Share this post